The trail of the Russian GRU military intelligence is becoming more and more evident.
While earlier the GRU involvement in Navalny poisoning was only one of the assumptions, a version, now we can confidently speak about the complicity of this particular intelligence agency in the attempt on the pocket opposition leader.
Head of the German intelligence Bruno Kahl recently said that Alexei Navalny had been poisoned with the agent from the Novichok group, which has a stronger effect than all other known subtypes.
According to German intelligence, the perpetrators hoped Navalny would die during on a plane, unable to get timely medical assistance. However, the pilot's move to do an emergency landing in Omsk, as well as the quick shot of atropine by Russian doctors, ultimately saved Navalny's life.
The involvement of the Russian special services in Navalny poisoning was never doubted as such. The only question remained, who exactly was who was behind the attempt. And for me personally, the GRU was the first agency that came to mind. Now the conclusion by the German intelligence makes the version the only viable one.
Over the past few years, we have witnessed a whole series of poisonings, with varying degrees of success, of Russia-loathed individuals living in Europe. There was an attempt on Bulgarian businessman Emilian Gebrev in 2015, as well as a hit on Sergey Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury in 2018. In both cases, it was novichok, the brainchild of Russian military labs, that was used as a poison. And in both cases it was GRU agents who used it.
In fact, the GRU enjoys a complete monopoly on the use of novichok so and no other agency is able to get access to it without their knowledge. That's unless someone seeks to frame some rivals as part of interagency squabbles...
Of course, in this case I mean the FSB, which for a long time patronized Alexei Navalny and could use the sacred victim in the face of a prominent oppo figure Navalny for its double game. However, this option, which I also considered earlier, turns out to be inviable, since Navalny was poisoned by a new, stronger type of novichok, which could only be developed in the Russian military labs and whose use could only be authorized within the GRU.
Moreover, the use of this kind of poison is so limited that over the past period only operatives with a single GRU unit, No.29155, led by Major General Andrei Averyanov.l, who had actual access to it.
But if this is so and the version with the GRU's participation in the attempt is confirmed, the question arises - why did they have to try to kill an opposition figure who for many years had played the role of a brake on protest moods?
The issue is perhaps one of the most important ones. After all, if the FSB, which patronized Navalny, was involved in his poisoning, their only benefit could have been in creating a sacred victim image, ou to bring new puppet heroes to the forefront of the “fight against dictatorial power”. But, as we already know, the FSB was not involved in the case. The only way they did get involved was to provide access to Navalny for trustworthy medics.
In turn, the unambiguous trace of the GRU that's been exposed dots the i's in this complicated case.
Earlier, I wrote that Navalny's employers (FSB) tried to integrate him into the protests in the Khabarovsk Territory in order to tone them down a notch. In principle, that's a classical task for Navalny throughout his long-term career, his main mission - to skilfully level protest moods
But the Khabarovsk protest is a project led by the GRU and the elites grouped around it, which in fact have taken control of an entire region and are cultivating a specific “Russian riot” attitudes there. The effort to penetrate these protests with Navalny's presence, which promised to kill the entire project, could not be afforded by the GRU masterminds, and therefore Major General Averyanov's operatives were involved.
However, the operation to eliminate Alexei Navalny was aimed not only at what we see on the surface.
When such decisions are made, all the consequences are calculated in detail. And the one who made the decision to eliminate the opposition figure understood perfectly well that his death would entail yet another international scandal, a blow to Russia's authority and the image of it's leadership, primarily in the person of Vladimir Putin. It would also entail another wave of sanctions and, of course, another demonization of the FSB.
And the decision has been made because the customer was perfectly okay with all these negative consequences. I'm talking about Sergei Shoigu and the political and financial elites rallying around him. Neither Putin, nor Bortnikov, nor Naryshkin, nor anyone else from the high offices to whom Navalny's activity was beneficial could make such an absurd decision. But the Minister of Defense, who saw himself in the near future as Putin's successor, but found himself in dispair after the count of Putin's presidential terms was reset in the amendments to the Constitution, starts a dirty and harsh game, a game of survival. It's either he or they.
But, once again in a meticulous and well-coordinated GRU plan, something went wrong, namely, the victim survived, again. Moreover, not only did the victim survive, he was also evacuated to Germany with the subsequent clarification of the source of poisoning, the origin of the poison, and all that international publicity, exposing a distinct, deep trail of the GRU. And not even so much of the GRU as of the ambitions that Sergei Shoigu conceals in relation to presidency and, in general, his dominance across vast Russian regions.
And therefore, who knows, perhaps the poisoning of Alexei Navalny will actually launch a much more serious flywheel of developments within Russia than another series of international “toxic” scandal in the endless series courtesy military unit 29155...