I have repeatedly written about the events in Georgia being a multi-level Russian provocation, in which even those forces are drawn that have no idea that they are being exploited. And as the Russian and pro-Russian media's coverage of these events develops, with a smooth transition from just the topic of protests to mentioning some kind of "chaos", and concluding with the hints at violent civil confrontation, I'm getting more and more convinced I was right in my judgments.
In my piece of June 21 titled "Traits and Objectives of the Kremlin Provocation in Georgia" (https://uc.od.ua/columns/1533/1215844), I set out my vision of the-then developing events in the Georgian capital Tbilisi and a number of other cities caused by the obviously provocative appearance of the Russian State Duma deputy, Sergei Gavrilov, in the hall of the Georgian parliament. Him sitting in the chair of the parliament speaker and addressing the deputies in Russian was an extremely flagrant, but also well-thought-out, step that effectively rocked Georgian society.
This provocation was a clearly pre-planned act, whose objective was to sow chaos in Georgia's social situation, through sparking an aggressive reaction, first and foremost among the pro-active, patriotic-minded stratum of the population.
And on June 27, in my article "The Kremlin intends to implement the scenario of controlled chaos in Ukraine" (https://uc.od.ua/columns/1533/1216035), through the prism of protracted protests in Georgia, I looked at the events in Ukraine that are also being chaotized through provocations targeting the patriotic part of the population made by the Kremlin puppets' obviously anti-government actions and through creating as many conflict situations as possible.
And now, on July 10, not only has the situation in Georgia failed to calm down, even more fuel is being added to the fire through politically incorrect behavior of the TV host of Rustavi-2 and information spins about the alleged legalization of LGBT communities.
In turn, the hybrid media are making of the endlessly pulsating capital of Georgia a picture of an almost pre-revolutionary city, ready at any moment to explode with civil confrontation with ensuing bloodshed and victims. And, I'm afraid, if the Kremlin resources are spinning such narratives, Russian hybrid structures do have such a scenario at hand and it is possible that they will intend to implement it in the foreseeable future.
The general contours of the Kremlin’s special operation in Georgia, clearly delineating the scenario of controlled chaos, launched by Moscow on the grounds of anti-Russian sentiment, but continuing under any other pretext that should turn into civil confrontation, are more than clear. But, in what will they further result? Perhaps, it's about creating an ephemeral appearance of civil war and provoking a conflict situation, as a result of which Georgia could lose even more of its territories?
I repeat once again, in my opinion, in the Kremlin's plan book, Georgia at the moment is more like a testing ground for methods and approaches, which after being applied there, are immediately attempted to be brought to life in Ukraine. It’s not Georgia that is the primary target for the Kremlin. Rather, it's Ukraine, where, if Moscow’s representatives show unsatisfactory results in parliamentary elections, a similar scenario could be implemented.
Although, on the other hand, even if the results are more than satisfactory for the pro-Russian clique, what could prevent them from launching such controlled chaos in Ukraine anyway?