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За прошедшие дни я отметил для себя удивительно низкий уровень внимания в Украинском медиапространстве к протестам в Иране. Хотя, события подобного масштаба несут для нашей страны не только информационную важность, но и геополитическую.

Да, многим украинцам может показаться это странным, что начавшиеся на прошлой неделе протесты в Исламской республике напрямую касаются нашей страны, но это именно так, и вот почему.

Прежде всего, напомню, Иран – это главный политический и военный союзник России в регионе. Да, он порою отстаивает исключительно собственные интересы, но по целому ряду направлений Тегеран и Москва идут рука об руку. И от этого мы будем отталкиваться в дальнейшем, разбирая влияние протестов в этой стране на Украину.

На сегодняшний день ситуация с протестами может развиваться в дальнейшем по трем сценариям. Первый – это силовое подавление народного волнения и сохранение религиозной тирании. В данном случае кардинальных изменений внешняя и внутренняя политики страны не претерпит, за исключением того, что тирания лишь усилит контроль за населением и преследование инакомыслящих.

Второй сценарий это полная победа протестантов, созыв нового правительства, изменение формы правления в стране и изменение ее внешней политики, с последующим невмешательством в Сирию, Йемен, и укрепление внешних связей с Западом.

Третий сценарий – это затянувшиеся протесты с переходом в состояние гражданской войны.

Нас в данном случае интересуют второй и третий сценарий, поскольку именно они будут в большей степени касаться нашей страны.

В случае развития ситуации по второму сценарию, в регионе будет нанесен серьезный урон, в первую очередь, по амбициям России. Лишившись такого союзника как Иран, Россия может оказаться брошенной в Сирии. Ведь только по самым скромным подсчетам, до трети войск Асада на сегодняшний день составляют военнослужащие и наемники (ушедшие в отпуск военные) армии Ирана и КСИР. По сути, за Асада сейчас в основном воюют иранские военные, Хезболла и россияне!

Представьте себе как изменится ситуация в Сирии, если новая власть в Тегеране вернет всю эту массу профессиональных военных домой и прекратит финансирование режима Асада, ведь самим кушать хочется? На одной Хезболле Дамаск не сможет удерживать ситуацию в стране, а лишившись финансового потока из Тегерана, оплачивать труд наемников станет сложнее.

В итоге, основная нагрузка двойного бремени ляжет на Россию. Больше «интернационалистов», больше нефтегазовых долларов и все это на фоне и без того ухудшающейся экономической обстановки в стране. В свою очередь, более серьезная поддержка сирийского диктатора не только ослабит экономику РФ и боеспособность армии «на месте», но и вызовет недовольство Запада, который примется «одаривать» Москву очередными порциями санкций.

По сути, второй сценарий для нас наиболее идеальный, ведь он не только лишит Кремль своего основного геополитического союзника, но и значительно его ослабит. С другой стороны, имеется менее желаемый третий сценарий.

В случае, если Иран погрузится в затяжной социально-общественный коллапс, с вероятным гражданским конфликтом, то руководству страны в любом случае придется ограничить финансовые потоки и военную поддержку Сирии. Не полностью, но в определенной степени, и это ограничение возымеет эффект, ведь России так же придется перебрасывать дополнительные ресурсы для поддержки Асада.

Однако, затяжные протесты и тем более гражданская война повлияют не только на поставки нефти Ираном, но даже в случае стабильного экспорта черного золота, будут значительно влиять на его ценообразование. Рост цены на нефть и как следствие на газ, сыграют на руку Кремлю, который получит дополнительный доход в свой бюджет.

Таким образом, с одной стороны России придется сконцентрировать больше внимания на Сирии и, не исключено, что и на самом Иране, с другой стороны, эта ситуация может существенно пополнить бюджет недоимперии.

Что же, будем надеяться, что кризис в Иране разрешится только в нашу пользу, и страна не погрузится в хаос, а вернет себе отобранную сорок лет назад свободу максимально бескровно, присоединившись к когорте цивилизованных и процветающих стран.
дно россии.jpg

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Comments

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lifeguard_fluid
Jan. 3rd, 2018 12:50 pm (UTC)
"будем надеяться, что кризис в Иране разрешится только в нашу пользу"
ебанные хохлы ищут свою пользу уже четверть века, а пока пользуют только их - ахахахаха))))))))))
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Узнаю хохлов - a073irl - Jan. 3rd, 2018 05:33 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - sakralny_korsun - Jan. 3rd, 2018 04:18 pm (UTC) - Expand
а сейчас хто ? беги в СБУ - a073irl - Jan. 3rd, 2018 05:35 pm (UTC) - Expand
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karpish
Jan. 3rd, 2018 12:55 pm (UTC)
разрешится только в нашу пользу, и страна не погрузится в хаос
И это говорит одессытка?
Но тут просто слов нет... Про бревно скромно умолчу....

Edited at 2018-01-03 12:56 pm (UTC)
Nikolay Chilikov
Jan. 3rd, 2018 05:08 pm (UTC)
Аналитика от боженьки.
(Deleted comment)
cheburator_b
Jan. 3rd, 2018 05:31 pm (UTC)
Садись на бутылка русский свинья.
Набутылочник, сейчас Иран за вас в Сирии воюет. Иранцам это надоело, так что дальше вы сами.
aquierec
Jan. 3rd, 2018 01:40 pm (UTC)
Да, многим украинцам может показаться это странным, что начавшиеся на прошлой неделе протесты в Исламской республике напрямую касаются нашей страны, но это именно так
======================
Товарищи майдауны!
Хватит ждать от судьбы подачек и пассивно ждать как сложится геополитическая ситуация в мировом пространстве!
Пора паковать чемоданы и самим, своими трудовыми руками вершить свою судьбу в Иране!
Хватит ныть, козаки!
Все на борьбу за свободу иранского народа от путинской деспотии!

Edited at 2018-01-03 01:43 pm (UTC)
micklecat
Jan. 3rd, 2018 01:44 pm (UTC)
Лобковой вши товарищ кацап!
А че ты сам не съездишь в ордло на сафари, каклов пострелять? Сцышь?
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afr00desit
Jan. 3rd, 2018 01:47 pm (UTC)
блеать, свинорылые дегенераты! А вы работать не пробовали вместо того, что бы искать "профит" в протестах на другой стороне глобуса? Вот же рукожопая и убогая недонация!

Edited at 2018-01-03 01:51 pm (UTC)
empationator
Jan. 3rd, 2018 02:21 pm (UTC)
мы активно работает над смертью твоей педерашки каждый день.
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paidiev
Jan. 3rd, 2018 01:49 pm (UTC)
Мда, бандерлог это диагноз.
Кризис в Иране это
1. Рост цен на нефть и газ.
2. Крах проекта ЕЭС по получению альтернативного России источника энергии с БВ.
Так что путину опять невероятно повезло.
ne_katsap
Jan. 3rd, 2018 02:01 pm (UTC)
Re: Мда, бандерлог это диагноз.
слышь, пидарок.
иран под санкциями был з 2006 года. как-то это не сказалось на обеспечении мира.
так что гавкай дальше набутылочныйруцкий свинособак
afr00desit
Jan. 3rd, 2018 01:58 pm (UTC)
адэсыт- дегенерат!
адэсыт кормит говном свою свинорылую паству что бы не объяснять им, дебилам, почему вместо обещанных здесь "валютного голода" в России и падения рубля, в говно летит гривна вместе с украиной!

navalniy_a
Jan. 3rd, 2018 02:02 pm (UTC)
Хохлы уже Крым промайданили.
Иранцы явно умнее хохлов.
navalniy_a
Jan. 3rd, 2018 02:02 pm (UTC)
бомж.jpg
oleg_poks
Jan. 3rd, 2018 02:10 pm (UTC)
гыыыы
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maxdz
Jan. 3rd, 2018 02:09 pm (UTC)
Может и москалики (москвичи), глядя на иранцев чему научатся. Hе расхаживать по Маааскве маршами, а идти прямо на Кремль, брать гэбэшную крысу за шкирки и вешать на ближайшей люстре.
Пока ватаны в Интернетах зубоскалят. :)

Хотя, о чём это я? Рашанз это ведь не иранец, а так - безмозглый африканец.
oleg_poks
Jan. 3rd, 2018 02:11 pm (UTC)
ога Иран это Украина только уровень жизни в два раза выше чем в нешем рогульнике и ничо ... как рабы мычим по хлевам тихо, а то Путин нападет.
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